A new Hot-Cold War has erupted, with Russia posing a threat to the liberal international order.
Little has changed in the general relationship between Russia and the West in the more than half-decade since the onset of the Ukrainian conflict, Russia's military action, and the application of Western sanctions against Russia.
In reality, ties have deteriorated as Russia continues to intervene in Ukraine and meddles more heavily in the internal politics of Western democracies.
Despite the drop in international energy prices and the expenses associated with European Union and US sanctions, the Russian economy seemed to recover prior to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, with an annual growth rate of 1.5–2.5 percent ("Russia: Real GDP" 2020).
More importantly, the sanctions and the resulting internal economic woes in Russia have not persuaded Russia's political leadership to make a meaningful adjustment in the country's foreign policy.
Indeed, Moscow's muscular actions in Ukraine, as well as more lately in Syria, have become a significant aspect of the Putin regime's drive to re-establish Russia's status as a great power and, as a result, enhance its political support among a broad segment of the populace (Berryman 2017).
Russian ties with the United States and the European Union have deteriorated dramatically since the turn of the century, as this chapter demonstrates.
President Putin is determined to restore Russia's dominance in regional and global affairs.
"Strengthening the country's defense, ensuring the inviolability of the Russian Federation's constitutional order, sovereignty, independence, and national and territorial integrity," according to the 2015 Security Strategy, and "consolidating the Russian Federation's status as a leading world power, whose actions aim to maintain strategic stability and mutually beneficial partnerships in a polycentric world" (Russian Federation 2015).
Given the Russian political elite's aim of re-establishing Russia's status as a global power and maintaining control over the Russian internal political system, forceful nationalism has become a key tool in achieving both of those goals.
The European Union, which was formerly seen as a benign actor in Moscow, is now seen as a rival for influence in post-Soviet territory and a hindrance to Russia's efforts to reclaim its position as the dominating actor in Eurasia and a key role in world affairs.
This rivalry, as well as the possibility of a domestic political challenge to Putin's leadership, is at the heart of the conflict that erupted in Ukraine in 2013–2014 and continues to sour ties four years later.
The chances of a meaningful improvement in ties in the near future are slim, since Russia's long-term aims and those of the European Union remain at odds.
The Russian leadership's determination to reclaim power throughout much of Eurasia is at odds with the EU's goal of spreading its influence into the post-Soviet region, as well as the more general goal of sustaining the liberal international order that has dominated for the last quarter-century.
Moscow does not recognize the basic values that underpin the present international order, as different members of the Russian leadership have made plain in recent years, and will do all it can to destroy it (Kanet 2018b).
Russia has used military interventions in Georgia and Ukraine, cyber-attacks against a variety of post-communist states (Imeson 2019), support for radical nationalist groups in EU member countries, and meddling in democratic elections in Europe and North America to weaken the Western-dominated international system.
The conflict between Russia and the United States and the European Union will continue until one side or the other abandons some of the objectives that have been central to its policy – in effect, its sense of identity – something that seemed unlikely until President Donald Trump's election cast doubt on virtually every aspect of US foreign policy.
Let me return to the subject of the elements that shape Russian foreign and security policy before quickly commenting on the effect of Trump's victory and administration.
External factors, such as Western efforts to extend their influence eastward into former Soviet-controlled areas, have been important, as discussed above, because it has allowed Putin and other Russian leaders to portray Western actions as a threat to overall Russian security as part of their effort to consolidate domestic support.
Officially, Russian strategic culture has evolved from an emphasis on domestic issues and possible cooperation with the West a quarter-century ago to a focus on external dangers, almost all of which are said to originate in the West.
But, more importantly than Western behavior, the Putin leadership's dedication to preserving power and the exploitation of Western actions to develop home support for a more aggressive foreign policy and more restricted, even authoritarian, internal control has been more essential.
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References & Further Reading
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